Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 11.570747 14.182274 17.097885 20.572853 24.579400 29.031596 34.329892
2026-01-04 7.908878 11.249233 15.402142 20.850158 27.707153 35.946939 46.483109
2026-01-11 5.935815 9.529145 14.392342 21.249302 30.441646 42.102433 57.747402
2026-01-18 4.711464 8.412986 13.800452 21.861907 33.226331 48.260067 69.177133
2026-01-25 3.589724 7.138858 12.688916 21.478066 34.459122 52.295338 77.924312
2026-02-01 2.893411 6.353049 12.123059 21.722043 36.469532 57.380239 88.226605
2026-02-08 2.245370 5.477036 11.239045 21.311916 37.398824 60.910721 96.470042
2026-02-15 1.714731 4.670440 10.312564 20.672661 37.850681 63.691258 103.696564
2026-02-22 1.454221 4.340125 10.161611 21.272662 40.236440 69.394058 115.332681
2026-03-01 1.144927 3.808228 9.534906 20.952257 41.072236 72.754115 123.622201
2026-03-08 0.930613 3.433152 9.143693 20.988181 42.463419 76.994177 133.353470
2026-03-15 0.690050 2.898909 8.317985 20.097646 42.173926 78.532662 138.990242
2026-03-22 0.578131 2.703534 8.229307 20.688334 44.636734 84.799591 152.518647
2026-03-29 0.464593 2.456038 7.978350 20.933412 46.517034 90.249009 165.066086
2026-04-05 0.379493 2.262786 7.815710 21.331452 48.688895 96.265711 178.727099
2026-04-12 0.317725 2.124278 7.761356 21.945742 51.293059 103.109846 193.946710
2026-04-19 0.236375 1.851016 7.284479 21.560733 51.938616 106.613759 203.839282
2026-04-26 0.188637 1.695540 7.098334 21.805445 53.814972 112.313237 217.516531
2026-05-03 0.137315 1.474525 6.660537 21.394080 54.333346 115.620945 227.299839
2026-05-10 0.095012 1.254728 6.160417 20.752885 54.313996 117.938510 235.463820
2026-05-17 0.078516 1.189556 6.155687 21.354707 56.920543 125.112926 252.109173
2026-05-24 0.055587 1.040380 5.813728 21.033331 57.531273 128.632590 262.565881
2026-05-31 0.041184 0.939350 5.617001 21.069364 58.907907 133.616971 275.699378